Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, anchored in the total absence of official State Department announcements, security advisories, or credible reports indicating such plans. The facility, relocated permanently from Tel Aviv in 2018, has operated continuously amid Israel-Hamas hostilities and regional tensions, with U.S. diplomatic presence underscoring alliance commitments. Recent developments show routine staffing and no specific threats, reinforcing historical resilience during past flare-ups. This skin-in-the-game assessment yields 97.4% odds on "No." Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen embassy-targeted attacks or sharp Middle East escalations prompting rapid diplomatic reviews.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$40,435 Объем
$40,435 Объем
Да
$40,435 Объем
$40,435 Объем
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, anchored in the total absence of official State Department announcements, security advisories, or credible reports indicating such plans. The facility, relocated permanently from Tel Aviv in 2018, has operated continuously amid Israel-Hamas hostilities and regional tensions, with U.S. diplomatic presence underscoring alliance commitments. Recent developments show routine staffing and no specific threats, reinforcing historical resilience during past flare-ups. This skin-in-the-game assessment yields 97.4% odds on "No." Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen embassy-targeted attacks or sharp Middle East escalations prompting rapid diplomatic reviews.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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