Market icon
Технологии·SpaceX

Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12

Market icon
Технологии·SpaceX

Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12

$1,384,038 Объем

31 янв. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$1,384,038 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта

$178,660 Объем

<1%

7 апреля

$869 Объем

2%

14 апреля

$13,624 Объем

16%

21 апреля

$56,728 Объем

12%

30 апреля

$24,161 Объем

58%

Взрывается ли сверхтяжёлый ускоритель?

$213,710 Объем

60%

Успешное приземление в воду?

$153,121 Объем

40%

Палочки ловят ускоритель Супер Хэви?

$201,196 Объем

8%

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Elon Musk's March 7 announcement targeting Starship V3's debut flight in early April has anchored trader focus on Flight Test 12, featuring upgraded Booster 19 and Ship 39 after successful cryogenic proof tests and static fires at Starbase. Delays from January targets reflect FAA mishap reviews and pad upgrades, but recent flight-safety approval and FCC license extension to April 5 signal regulatory clearance nearing completion. This iterative test advances full reusability and Mars ambitions amid competition from slower legacy launchers like ULA's Vulcan. Watch for final license modification, static fire confirmation, and weather in the next week, as any anomaly could slip the window into late April.

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Объем
$1,384,038
Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Elon Musk's March 7 announcement targeting Starship V3's debut flight in early April has anchored trader focus on Flight Test 12, featuring upgraded Booster 19 and Ship 39 after successful cryogenic proof tests and static fires at Starbase. Delays from January targets reflect FAA mishap reviews and pad upgrades, but recent flight-safety approval and FCC license extension to April 5 signal regulatory clearance nearing completion. This iterative test advances full reusability and Mars ambitions amid competition from slower legacy launchers like ULA's Vulcan. Watch for final license modification, static fire confirmation, and weather in the next week, as any anomaly could slip the window into late April.

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Объем
$1,384,038
Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 12 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Взрывается ли сверхтяжёлый ускоритель?» с 60%, за ним следует «30 апреля» с 58%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 60¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 60%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.4 million с момента запуска рынка Oct 17, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12», просмотри 12 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12» — «Взрывается ли сверхтяжёлый ускоритель?» с 60%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 60%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 апреля» с 58%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Летные испытания космического корабля SpaceX 12» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.