Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 80.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing achievement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) before 2027, reflecting measured progress in models like the recently released o1 reasoning system, which previews Level 2 capabilities in OpenAI's five-level AGI framework but stops short of Level 5—systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. The September o1 launch delivered benchmark gains, such as 83% on AIME math and 74% on GPQA science, yet exposed limits in generalization, efficiency, and real-world agency amid scaling challenges and data constraints. Key researcher departures, including Ilya Sutskever, and intensifying regulatory scrutiny from U.S. AI safety initiatives further dampen optimism. Traders eye the early 2025 GPT-5 (Orion) release as the next major catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоOpenAI объявляет, что достиг ОИИ до 2027 года?
OpenAI объявляет, что достиг ОИИ до 2027 года?
Да
$40,732 Объем
$40,732 Объем
Да
$40,732 Объем
$40,732 Объем
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 80.5% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing achievement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) before 2027, reflecting measured progress in models like the recently released o1 reasoning system, which previews Level 2 capabilities in OpenAI's five-level AGI framework but stops short of Level 5—systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. The September o1 launch delivered benchmark gains, such as 83% on AIME math and 74% on GPQA science, yet exposed limits in generalization, efficiency, and real-world agency amid scaling challenges and data constraints. Key researcher departures, including Ilya Sutskever, and intensifying regulatory scrutiny from U.S. AI safety initiatives further dampen optimism. Traders eye the early 2025 GPT-5 (Orion) release as the next major catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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