US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities in Tehran on April 3, while Iran downed two US warplanes on April 4, underscoring the ongoing escalation five weeks into the conflict that began with nearly 900 initial strikes on February 28. Despite US claims of degrading Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%, Tehran continues ballistic missile and drone retaliations, with the Strait of Hormuz contested and no ceasefire signals. Trader consensus prices a 79% chance of military action ending by June 30, reflecting prolonged operations amid uncertainty over regime stability and diplomatic off-ramps.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$73,783 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
April 4
<1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
2%
April 8
11%
April 9
10%
April 10
12%
April 11
39%
April 12
42%
April 13
40%
April 14
9%
April 15
10%
April 16
37%
April 17
42%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
42%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
29%
April 26
44%
April 27
46%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
33%
$73,783 Объем
April 4
$1,975 Объем
<1%
April 5
$2,161 Объем
1%
April 6
$6,693 Объем
1%
April 7
$100 Объем
2%
April 8
$35 Объем
11%
April 9
$2,810 Объем
10%
April 10
$0 Объем
12%
April 11
$11 Объем
39%
April 12
$0 Объем
42%
April 13
$0 Объем
40%
April 14
$4,746 Объем
9%
April 15
$178 Объем
10%
April 16
$0 Объем
37%
April 17
$0 Объем
42%
April 18
$0 Объем
44%
April 19
$0 Объем
44%
April 20
$0 Объем
42%
April 21
$0 Объем
44%
April 22
$0 Объем
44%
April 23
$0 Объем
44%
April 24
$0 Объем
44%
April 25
$2,777 Объем
29%
April 26
$0 Объем
44%
April 27
$38 Объем
46%
April 28
$0 Объем
44%
April 29
$0 Объем
44%
April 30
$22,362 Объем
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities in Tehran on April 3, while Iran downed two US warplanes on April 4, underscoring the ongoing escalation five weeks into the conflict that began with nearly 900 initial strikes on February 28. Despite US claims of degrading Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%, Tehran continues ballistic missile and drone retaliations, with the Strait of Hormuz contested and no ceasefire signals. Trader consensus prices a 79% chance of military action ending by June 30, reflecting prolonged operations amid uncertainty over regime stability and diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$73,783Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities in Tehran on April 3, while Iran downed two US warplanes on April 4, underscoring the ongoing escalation five weeks into the conflict that began with nearly 900 initial strikes on February 28. Despite US claims of degrading Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%, Tehran continues ballistic missile and drone retaliations, with the Strait of Hormuz contested and no ceasefire signals. Trader consensus prices a 79% chance of military action ending by June 30, reflecting prolonged operations amid uncertainty over regime stability and diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$73,783Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities in Tehran on April 3, while Iran downed two US warplanes on April 4, underscoring the ongoing escalation five weeks into the conflict that began with nearly 900 initial strikes on February 28. Despite US claims of degrading Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%, Tehran continues ballistic missile and drone retaliations, with the Strait of Hormuz contested and no ceasefire signals. Trader consensus prices a 79% chance of military action ending by June 30, reflecting prolonged operations amid uncertainty over regime stability and diplomatic off-ramps.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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