US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$72,692 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
April 3
<1%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
2%
April 8
18%
April 9
19%
April 10
12%
April 11
41%
April 12
43%
April 13
43%
April 14
9%
April 15
10%
April 16
37%
April 17
42%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
25%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
30%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
32%
$72,692 Объем
April 3
$8,242 Объем
<1%
April 4
$1,970 Объем
1%
April 5
$2,161 Объем
1%
April 6
$5,625 Объем
1%
April 7
$100 Объем
2%
April 8
$35 Объем
18%
April 9
$2,810 Объем
19%
April 10
$0 Объем
12%
April 11
$11 Объем
41%
April 12
$0 Объем
43%
April 13
$0 Объем
43%
April 14
$4,746 Объем
9%
April 15
$159 Объем
10%
April 16
$0 Объем
37%
April 17
$0 Объем
42%
April 18
$0 Объем
44%
April 19
$0 Объем
44%
April 20
$0 Объем
25%
April 21
$0 Объем
44%
April 22
$0 Объем
44%
April 23
$0 Объем
44%
April 24
$0 Объем
44%
April 25
$2,777 Объем
30%
April 26
$0 Объем
44%
April 27
$38 Объем
45%
April 28
$0 Объем
44%
April 29
$0 Объем
44%
April 30
$22,362 Объем
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$72,692Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$72,692Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and defense industries—now in their sixth week since launching on February 28, 2026—continue unabated, driving trader consensus toward prolonged conflict in this Polymarket. Iran rejected a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, while claiming to have downed two American fighter jets the same day, with one service member rescued and another missing, underscoring ongoing escalation and retaliatory missile barrages on Israel. No de-escalation signals have emerged amid degraded Iranian command structures and closed Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic backchannels or regime internal pressures could shift dynamics ahead of potential UN Security Council sessions next week.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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