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Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Market icon
Выборы·Ближний Восток

Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 14%

Хезболла (Хезб) 2.5%

Партия Такаддом 1.6%

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 1.4%

Polymarket

$206,266 Объем

Ливанские силы (ЛС) 14%

Хезболла (Хезб) 2.5%

Партия Такаддом 1.6%

Движение Амаль (Амаль) 1.4%

Polymarket

$206,266 Объем

Ливанские силы (ЛС)

$135,357 Объем

14%

Хезболла (Хезб)

$41,200 Объем

3%

Партия Такаддом

$0 Объем

2%

Движение Амаль (Амаль)

$26,742 Объем

1%

Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)

$2,967 Объем

7%

ReLebanon

$0 Объем

1%

Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)

$0 Объем

1%

Движение достоинства (ДД)

$0 Объем

1%

Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)

$0 Объем

1%

Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)

$0 Объем

1%

Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)

$0 Объем

1%

Движение независимости (ДН)

$0 Объем

1%

Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)

$0 Объем

<1%

Партия Союз (ПС)

$0 Объем

<1%

Движение Марада (MM)

$0 Объем

<1%

Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)

$0 Объем

<1%

Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)

$0 Объем

<1%

Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)

$0 Объем

<1%

Альянс Ватани (Watani)

$0 Объем

<1%

Исламская группа (ИГ)

$0 Объем

<1%

Хатт Ахмар

$0 Объем

<1%

Партия национального диалога (ПНД)

$0 Объем

<1%

Партия Мада (Mada)

$0 Объем

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The recent Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 has solidified trader consensus favoring Lebanese Forces (LF) at 14% implied probability to secure the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, expected in mid-2026 barring a snap vote triggered by presidential deadlock or no-confidence motions. Hezbollah's military setbacks, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September and subsequent leadership losses, have eroded its dominance in the Shia bloc, dropping its odds to 2.4% amid de-escalation signals and Lebanese Army deployments south of the Litani River. LF differentiates through its staunch anti-Hezbollah stance and solid Maronite Christian base, while Ba'ath's 7.1% reflects niche pro-Syria appeal in a fragmented proportional representation system divided by sectarian quotas. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, Sunni alliances, or economic stabilization efforts, with the wide-open field underscoring coalition negotiation uncertainties.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$206,266
Дата окончания
May 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.The recent Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 has solidified trader consensus favoring Lebanese Forces (LF) at 14% implied probability to secure the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, expected in mid-2026 barring a snap vote triggered by presidential deadlock or no-confidence motions. Hezbollah's military setbacks, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September and subsequent leadership losses, have eroded its dominance in the Shia bloc, dropping its odds to 2.4% amid de-escalation signals and Lebanese Army deployments south of the Litani River. LF differentiates through its staunch anti-Hezbollah stance and solid Maronite Christian base, while Ba'ath's 7.1% reflects niche pro-Syria appeal in a fragmented proportional representation system divided by sectarian quotas. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, Sunni alliances, or economic stabilization efforts, with the wide-open field underscoring coalition negotiation uncertainties.

The recent Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 has solidified trader consensus favoring Lebanese Forces (LF) at 14% implied probability to secure the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, expected in mid-2026 barring a snap vote triggered by presidential deadlock or no-confidence motions. Hezbollah's military setbacks, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September and subsequent leadership losses, have eroded its dominance in the Shia bloc, dropping its odds to 2.4% amid de-escalation signals and Lebanese Army deployments south of the Litani River. LF differentiates through its staunch anti-Hezbollah stance and solid Maronite Christian base, while Ba'ath's 7.1% reflects niche pro-Syria appeal in a fragmented proportional representation system divided by sectarian quotas. Consolidation could hinge on presidential election progress, Sunni alliances, or economic stabilization efforts, with the wide-open field underscoring coalition negotiation uncertainties.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 23 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Ливанские силы (ЛС)» с 14%, за ним следует «Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 14¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 14%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $206.3K с момента запуска рынка Jan 6, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане», просмотри 23 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» — «Ливанские силы (ЛС)» с 14%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 14%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.