Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a June SpaceX IPO at 32% implied probability, driven by optimism over Starship's recent Flight 5 success and accelerating test cadence, signaling potential operational maturity that could greenlight a listing after years of Elon Musk's cautions against premature public markets. The fragmented odds across months highlight deep uncertainty, with 12.5% on no IPO before 2027 reflecting SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation, robust Starlink revenue streams obviating capital needs, and regulatory hurdles like FCC spectrum approvals. Differentiators include Q2 fiscal alignment for Starlink carve-out timing, quarterly launch milestones, and broader tech IPO thaw amid cooling inflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИюнь 34%
Сентябрь 8.3%
Май 6.2%
Апрель 5.1%
$63,505 Объем
$63,505 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
9%
Май
6%
Июнь
34%
Июль
8%
Август
8%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
4%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
12%
Июнь 34%
Сентябрь 8.3%
Май 6.2%
Апрель 5.1%
$63,505 Объем
$63,505 Объем
Март
1%
Апрель
9%
Май
6%
Июнь
34%
Июль
8%
Август
8%
Сентябрь
11%
Октябрь
4%
Ноябрь
9%
Декабрь
4%
Нет IPO до 2027 года
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a June SpaceX IPO at 32% implied probability, driven by optimism over Starship's recent Flight 5 success and accelerating test cadence, signaling potential operational maturity that could greenlight a listing after years of Elon Musk's cautions against premature public markets. The fragmented odds across months highlight deep uncertainty, with 12.5% on no IPO before 2027 reflecting SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation, robust Starlink revenue streams obviating capital needs, and regulatory hurdles like FCC spectrum approvals. Differentiators include Q2 fiscal alignment for Starlink carve-out timing, quarterly launch milestones, and broader tech IPO thaw amid cooling inflation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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