Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships (50%) as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, reflecting degraded Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that have destroyed over 120 IRGC vessels, including fast-attack craft used for maritime harassment. The latest confirmed incident, a missile strike on the Kuwait-flagged tanker Al-Salmi two days ago, marks the 21st reported attack since the late-February Strait of Hormuz crisis escalation, but diminished fleet strength limits further operations. The 10+ outcome at 34% accounts for escalation risks if Iran-backed Houthis intensify Red Sea disruptions amid their recent missile launches at Israel, or if Hormuz closure persists despite President Trump's signals of winding down the conflict within weeks. Ongoing U.S. precision operations and diplomatic posturing on shipping lane security underpin the moderate pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
10+ 34.0%
4–5 18%
6–7 13%
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
2–3
51%
4–5
17%
6–7
13%
8–9
8%
10+
34%
2–3 51%
10+ 34.0%
4–5 18%
6–7 13%
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
2–3
$3,646 Объем
51%
4–5
$169 Объем
17%
6–7
$2,163 Объем
13%
8–9
$4,889 Объем
8%
10+
$166 Объем
34%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships (50%) as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, reflecting degraded Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that have destroyed over 120 IRGC vessels, including fast-attack craft used for maritime harassment. The latest confirmed incident, a missile strike on the Kuwait-flagged tanker Al-Salmi two days ago, marks the 21st reported attack since the late-February Strait of Hormuz crisis escalation, but diminished fleet strength limits further operations. The 10+ outcome at 34% accounts for escalation risks if Iran-backed Houthis intensify Red Sea disruptions amid their recent missile launches at Israel, or if Hormuz closure persists despite President Trump's signals of winding down the conflict within weeks. Ongoing U.S. precision operations and diplomatic posturing on shipping lane security underpin the moderate pricing.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships (50%) as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, reflecting degraded Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that have destroyed over 120 IRGC vessels, including fast-attack craft used for maritime harassment. The latest confirmed incident, a missile strike on the Kuwait-flagged tanker Al-Salmi two days ago, marks the 21st reported attack since the late-February Strait of Hormuz crisis escalation, but diminished fleet strength limits further operations. The 10+ outcome at 34% accounts for escalation risks if Iran-backed Houthis intensify Red Sea disruptions amid their recent missile launches at Israel, or if Hormuz closure persists despite President Trump's signals of winding down the conflict within weeks. Ongoing U.S. precision operations and diplomatic posturing on shipping lane security underpin the moderate pricing.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships (50%) as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, reflecting degraded Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes that have destroyed over 120 IRGC vessels, including fast-attack craft used for maritime harassment. The latest confirmed incident, a missile strike on the Kuwait-flagged tanker Al-Salmi two days ago, marks the 21st reported attack since the late-February Strait of Hormuz crisis escalation, but diminished fleet strength limits further operations. The 10+ outcome at 34% accounts for escalation risks if Iran-backed Houthis intensify Red Sea disruptions amid their recent missile launches at Israel, or if Hormuz closure persists despite President Trump's signals of winding down the conflict within weeks. Ongoing U.S. precision operations and diplomatic posturing on shipping lane security underpin the moderate pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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