Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, up sharply amid an oil price shock from Middle East tensions and yesterday's robust March jobs report, which showed strong hiring and undermined easing expectations. The 22.5% odds for one cut (25 bps) trail closely, aligning loosely with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single quarter-point reduction from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range, as core PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2026. Persistent inflation above 2% and resilient GDP growth have shifted fixed-income markets toward steady policy through year-end, though the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and impending March CPI data loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 35.9%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 23%
2 (50 б.п.) 17%
3 (75 б.п.) 9%
$15,973,961 Объем
$15,973,961 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
36%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
23%
2 (50 б.п.)
17%
3 (75 б.п.)
9%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
5%
5 (125 б.п.)
2%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 35.9%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 23%
2 (50 б.п.) 17%
3 (75 б.п.) 9%
$15,973,961 Объем
$15,973,961 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$2,746,108 Объем
36%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$907,433 Объем
23%
2 (50 б.п.)
$835,696 Объем
17%
3 (75 б.п.)
$805,197 Объем
9%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$816,363 Объем
5%
5 (125 б.п.)
$884,478 Объем
2%
6 (150 б.п.)
$1,912,177 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$808,675 Объем
1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,048,130 Объем
1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$934,714 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$1,383,301 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$1,250,837 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$1,642,303 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, up sharply amid an oil price shock from Middle East tensions and yesterday's robust March jobs report, which showed strong hiring and undermined easing expectations. The 22.5% odds for one cut (25 bps) trail closely, aligning loosely with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single quarter-point reduction from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range, as core PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2026. Persistent inflation above 2% and resilient GDP growth have shifted fixed-income markets toward steady policy through year-end, though the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and impending March CPI data loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$15,973,961Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, up sharply amid an oil price shock from Middle East tensions and yesterday's robust March jobs report, which showed strong hiring and undermined easing expectations. The 22.5% odds for one cut (25 bps) trail closely, aligning loosely with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single quarter-point reduction from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range, as core PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2026. Persistent inflation above 2% and resilient GDP growth have shifted fixed-income markets toward steady policy through year-end, though the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and impending March CPI data loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$15,973,961Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026, up sharply amid an oil price shock from Middle East tensions and yesterday's robust March jobs report, which showed strong hiring and undermined easing expectations. The 22.5% odds for one cut (25 bps) trail closely, aligning loosely with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of a single quarter-point reduction from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range, as core PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2026. Persistent inflation above 2% and resilient GDP growth have shifted fixed-income markets toward steady policy through year-end, though the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and impending March CPI data loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы