Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 68–72°F amid a tight race between warmer 72°F+ (30%) and slightly cooler bins. This stems from the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing a persistent upper-level ridge over California fostering above-normal temperatures, as evidenced by recent March highs nearing 90°F during an unusual heat wave, but potential marine layer intrusion from Pacific upwelling could cap peaks via low clouds and onshore flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF exhibit spread in ridge strength and boundary layer mixing, with historical April averages near 63°F adding caution. Watch daily 12Z model updates and NWS advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 3?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 3?
68-69°F 24%
72°F or higher 22%
70-71°F 21%
64-65°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
10%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
21%
72°F or higher
22%
68-69°F 24%
72°F or higher 22%
70-71°F 21%
64-65°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
53°F or below
$280 Объем
1%
54-55°F
$387 Объем
1%
56-57°F
$0 Объем
10%
58-59°F
$40 Объем
10%
60-61°F
$0 Объем
14%
62-63°F
$0 Объем
12%
64-65°F
$0 Объем
20%
66-67°F
$0 Объем
19%
68-69°F
$0 Объем
24%
70-71°F
$0 Объем
21%
72°F or higher
$0 Объем
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 68–72°F amid a tight race between warmer 72°F+ (30%) and slightly cooler bins. This stems from the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing a persistent upper-level ridge over California fostering above-normal temperatures, as evidenced by recent March highs nearing 90°F during an unusual heat wave, but potential marine layer intrusion from Pacific upwelling could cap peaks via low clouds and onshore flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF exhibit spread in ridge strength and boundary layer mixing, with historical April averages near 63°F adding caution. Watch daily 12Z model updates and NWS advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Объем
$706Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 68–72°F amid a tight race between warmer 72°F+ (30%) and slightly cooler bins. This stems from the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing a persistent upper-level ridge over California fostering above-normal temperatures, as evidenced by recent March highs nearing 90°F during an unusual heat wave, but potential marine layer intrusion from Pacific upwelling could cap peaks via low clouds and onshore flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF exhibit spread in ridge strength and boundary layer mixing, with historical April averages near 63°F adding caution. Watch daily 12Z model updates and NWS advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$706Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in San Francisco's highest temperature at KSFO on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 68–72°F amid a tight race between warmer 72°F+ (30%) and slightly cooler bins. This stems from the National Weather Service's latest guidance showing a persistent upper-level ridge over California fostering above-normal temperatures, as evidenced by recent March highs nearing 90°F during an unusual heat wave, but potential marine layer intrusion from Pacific upwelling could cap peaks via low clouds and onshore flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF exhibit spread in ridge strength and boundary layer mixing, with historical April averages near 63°F adding caution. Watch daily 12Z model updates and NWS advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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