Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering tightly around a 17.5°C mean but divergent spreads capturing both 17°C or below and exactly 18°C equally. Over the past 48 hours, updated AEMET guidance and global model runs have highlighted a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased northerly winds (10-15 km/h) and partial cloud cover, potentially capping daytime heating below 18°C, while brief sunny intervals could nudge peaks higher. April climatology at the station averages 18°C highs, but early 2026 trends show slightly below-normal means amid variable atmospheric stability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z release for shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on April 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 9?
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
23°C 27%
27°C or higher 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 апр. 2026 г.
17°C or below
6%
18°C
4%
19°C
23%
20°C
23%
21°C
23%
22°C
23%
23°C
27%
24°C
26%
25°C
28%
26°C
29%
27°C or higher
27%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
23°C 27%
27°C or higher 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 апр. 2026 г.
17°C or below
$0 Объем
6%
18°C
$0 Объем
4%
19°C
$0 Объем
23%
20°C
$0 Объем
23%
21°C
$0 Объем
23%
22°C
$0 Объем
23%
23°C
$0 Объем
27%
24°C
$0 Объем
26%
25°C
$0 Объем
28%
26°C
$0 Объем
29%
27°C or higher
$0 Объем
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering tightly around a 17.5°C mean but divergent spreads capturing both 17°C or below and exactly 18°C equally. Over the past 48 hours, updated AEMET guidance and global model runs have highlighted a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased northerly winds (10-15 km/h) and partial cloud cover, potentially capping daytime heating below 18°C, while brief sunny intervals could nudge peaks higher. April climatology at the station averages 18°C highs, but early 2026 trends show slightly below-normal means amid variable atmospheric stability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z release for shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
9 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering tightly around a 17.5°C mean but divergent spreads capturing both 17°C or below and exactly 18°C equally. Over the past 48 hours, updated AEMET guidance and global model runs have highlighted a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased northerly winds (10-15 km/h) and partial cloud cover, potentially capping daytime heating below 18°C, while brief sunny intervals could nudge peaks higher. April climatology at the station averages 18°C highs, but early 2026 trends show slightly below-normal means amid variable atmospheric stability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z release for shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
9 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid-Barajas Airport's highest temperature on April 9, with ECMWF and GFS models clustering tightly around a 17.5°C mean but divergent spreads capturing both 17°C or below and exactly 18°C equally. Over the past 48 hours, updated AEMET guidance and global model runs have highlighted a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing increased northerly winds (10-15 km/h) and partial cloud cover, potentially capping daytime heating below 18°C, while brief sunny intervals could nudge peaks higher. April climatology at the station averages 18°C highs, but early 2026 trends show slightly below-normal means amid variable atmospheric stability. Watch tomorrow's ECMWF 00Z release for shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы