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Политика·Выключение правительства

Funding lapse without government shutdown?

Market icon
Политика·Выключение правительства

Funding lapse without government shutdown?

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$207,240 Объем

<1% вероятность
Polymarket

$207,240 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify.

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Объем
$207,240
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2025 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify.

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Объем
$207,240
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2025 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on October 1 (ET) a U.S government funding lapse occurs, but the Government does NOT shut down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The government will be considered to have shutdown if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations on October 1, 2025 ET. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, specifically the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Предложенный исход: No

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: No

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Funding lapse without government shutdown? » — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 0% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 0¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Funding lapse without government shutdown? » сгенерировал общий объём торгов $207.2K с момента запуска рынка Sep 23, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Funding lapse without government shutdown? », просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Funding lapse without government shutdown? » составляет 0% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Funding lapse without government shutdown? » точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.