Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability for consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, aggregating sentiment after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. This positioning stems from Chair Powell's press conference signaling policy remains appropriate amid headline CPI steady at 2.4% in February but sticky core PCE near 3%, a resilient economy despite February nonfarm payrolls falling 92,000, and hot March PPI data that slashed June-July 25 basis point cut odds below 30%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict elevating oil prices, further bolster inflation risks. Key catalyst ahead: March CPI on April 10, influencing April outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
29 июл. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
3%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
29 июл. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$329 Объем
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$163 Объем
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$189 Объем
3%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$151 Объем
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$539 Объем
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$183 Объем
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$170 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$195 Объем
2%
Other
$196 Объем
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability for consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, aggregating sentiment after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. This positioning stems from Chair Powell's press conference signaling policy remains appropriate amid headline CPI steady at 2.4% in February but sticky core PCE near 3%, a resilient economy despite February nonfarm payrolls falling 92,000, and hot March PPI data that slashed June-July 25 basis point cut odds below 30%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict elevating oil prices, further bolster inflation risks. Key catalyst ahead: March CPI on April 10, influencing April outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$2,115Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability for consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, aggregating sentiment after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. This positioning stems from Chair Powell's press conference signaling policy remains appropriate amid headline CPI steady at 2.4% in February but sticky core PCE near 3%, a resilient economy despite February nonfarm payrolls falling 92,000, and hot March PPI data that slashed June-July 25 basis point cut odds below 30%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict elevating oil prices, further bolster inflation risks. Key catalyst ahead: March CPI on April 10, influencing April outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$2,115Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 75.5% implied probability for consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, aggregating sentiment after the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. This positioning stems from Chair Powell's press conference signaling policy remains appropriate amid headline CPI steady at 2.4% in February but sticky core PCE near 3%, a resilient economy despite February nonfarm payrolls falling 92,000, and hot March PPI data that slashed June-July 25 basis point cut odds below 30%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict elevating oil prices, further bolster inflation risks. Key catalyst ahead: March CPI on April 10, influencing April outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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