Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at a 50% implied probability of topping the vote share in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its stable 22-23% lead in recent Sonntagsfragen from Infratest dimap and INSA through late February 2026. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition faces low public satisfaction amid crises like power outages, yet opposition remains fragmented with Die Linke at 15-18%, AfD at 16-17%, Grüne and SPD trailing at 14-16%. CDU's national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz bolsters its edge, while FDP, BSW, and FW poll below the 5% threshold. No major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign dynamics and turnout in this left-leaning city could influence coalition negotiations post-election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 50%
Левица 13%
АдГ 10.7%
Зелёные 10.2%
$1,848,728 Объем
$1,848,728 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
50%
Левица
13%
АдГ
11%
Зелёные
10%
СДПГ
9%
BSW
1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 50%
Левица 13%
АдГ 10.7%
Зелёные 10.2%
$1,848,728 Объем
$1,848,728 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$9,012 Объем
50%
Левица
$8,150 Объем
13%
АдГ
$1,498,192 Объем
11%
Зелёные
$23,073 Объем
10%
СДПГ
$281,769 Объем
9%
BSW
$15,565 Объем
1%
СвДП
$8,318 Объем
<1%
FW
$5,121 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at a 50% implied probability of topping the vote share in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its stable 22-23% lead in recent Sonntagsfragen from Infratest dimap and INSA through late February 2026. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition faces low public satisfaction amid crises like power outages, yet opposition remains fragmented with Die Linke at 15-18%, AfD at 16-17%, Grüne and SPD trailing at 14-16%. CDU's national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz bolsters its edge, while FDP, BSW, and FW poll below the 5% threshold. No major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign dynamics and turnout in this left-leaning city could influence coalition negotiations post-election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$1,848,728Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at a 50% implied probability of topping the vote share in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its stable 22-23% lead in recent Sonntagsfragen from Infratest dimap and INSA through late February 2026. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition faces low public satisfaction amid crises like power outages, yet opposition remains fragmented with Die Linke at 15-18%, AfD at 16-17%, Grüne and SPD trailing at 14-16%. CDU's national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz bolsters its edge, while FDP, BSW, and FW poll below the 5% threshold. No major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign dynamics and turnout in this left-leaning city could influence coalition negotiations post-election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$1,848,728Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at a 50% implied probability of topping the vote share in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its stable 22-23% lead in recent Sonntagsfragen from Infratest dimap and INSA through late February 2026. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition faces low public satisfaction amid crises like power outages, yet opposition remains fragmented with Die Linke at 15-18%, AfD at 16-17%, Grüne and SPD trailing at 14-16%. CDU's national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz bolsters its edge, while FDP, BSW, and FW poll below the 5% threshold. No major shifts in the past month; upcoming campaign dynamics and turnout in this left-leaning city could influence coalition negotiations post-election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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