Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 50%
АдГ 13.9%
Левица 13%
Зелёные 10.2%
$1,820,488 Объем
$1,820,488 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
50%
АдГ
14%
Левица
13%
Зелёные
10%
СДПГ
9%
BSW
<1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 50%
АдГ 13.9%
Левица 13%
Зелёные 10.2%
$1,820,488 Объем
$1,820,488 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$9,012 Объем
50%
АдГ
$1,469,923 Объем
14%
Левица
$8,150 Объем
13%
Зелёные
$23,073 Объем
10%
СДПГ
$281,769 Объем
9%
BSW
$15,534 Объем
<1%
СвДП
$8,318 Объем
<1%
FW
$5,121 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$1,820,488Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$1,820,488Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU at 50% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable 22% lead in February polls from INSA and Civey over a fragmented opposition. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from consistent advantages amid national conservative gains, like the recent Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl victory. AfD at 18.1% has surged to second place on discontent from the January arson-induced power blackout affecting tens of thousands and February black ice chaos paralyzing Berlin Brandenburg Airport, eroding support for SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered at 9-13%. Smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW hover below 1%, unlikely to contend without major shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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