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Geopolítica·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$53,914 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$53,914 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de abril

$19,363 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Vice President JD Vance has emerged as a key figure in indirect diplomacy amid escalating tensions with Iran, recently communicating with Pakistani intermediaries as late as April 1 to signal openness to a ceasefire contingent on demands like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, per sources briefed on the matter. Iran has explicitly preferred Vance over envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff for formal talks, citing past mistrust, while Trump has touted Vance's involvement alongside others. No direct conversations with Iranian negotiators have occurred yet, despite narrowly missed breakthrough sessions in Islamabad where Vance twice postponed visits. Traders watch for potential formal negotiations in coming weeks, amid Vance's warnings of escalated strikes absent a deal and consultations with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.

A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$53,914
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. Vice President JD Vance has emerged as a key figure in indirect diplomacy amid escalating tensions with Iran, recently communicating with Pakistani intermediaries as late as April 1 to signal openness to a ceasefire contingent on demands like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, per sources briefed on the matter. Iran has explicitly preferred Vance over envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff for formal talks, citing past mistrust, while Trump has touted Vance's involvement alongside others. No direct conversations with Iranian negotiators have occurred yet, despite narrowly missed breakthrough sessions in Islamabad where Vance twice postponed visits. Traders watch for potential formal negotiations in coming weeks, amid Vance's warnings of escalated strikes absent a deal and consultations with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.

A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$53,914
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de abril" at 23%, followed by "31 de março" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" has generated $53.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is "30 de abril" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de março" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.