Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued conditions ahead. Only four continental U.S. Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 seasons that produced multiple basin-wide Cat 5s like Melissa but saw weakening or recurvature before U.S. coasts—no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all in 2025. Early NOAA and AccuWeather outlooks for the 2026 season forecast near-below average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions that boost wind shear and suppress intensification. Traders eye June 1 season start and evolving ENSO updates, though rapid intensification remains a low-probability wildcard.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAlgum furacão de categoria 5 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Algum furacão de categoria 5 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Sim
$107,305 Vol.
$107,305 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sim
$107,305 Vol.
$107,305 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued conditions ahead. Only four continental U.S. Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 seasons that produced multiple basin-wide Cat 5s like Melissa but saw weakening or recurvature before U.S. coasts—no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all in 2025. Early NOAA and AccuWeather outlooks for the 2026 season forecast near-below average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions that boost wind shear and suppress intensification. Traders eye June 1 season start and evolving ENSO updates, though rapid intensification remains a low-probability wildcard.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$107,305Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued conditions ahead. Only four continental U.S. Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 seasons that produced multiple basin-wide Cat 5s like Melissa but saw weakening or recurvature before U.S. coasts—no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all in 2025. Early NOAA and AccuWeather outlooks for the 2026 season forecast near-below average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions that boost wind shear and suppress intensification. Traders eye June 1 season start and evolving ENSO updates, though rapid intensification remains a low-probability wildcard.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$107,305Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and subdued conditions ahead. Only four continental U.S. Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite hyperactive 2024 and 2025 seasons that produced multiple basin-wide Cat 5s like Melissa but saw weakening or recurvature before U.S. coasts—no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all in 2025. Early NOAA and AccuWeather outlooks for the 2026 season forecast near-below average activity (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions that boost wind shear and suppress intensification. Traders eye June 1 season start and evolving ENSO updates, though rapid intensification remains a low-probability wildcard.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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