The Republican incumbent Bryan Steil holds a modest edge in Wisconsin’s First Congressional District race for the 2026 midterm, consistent with the seat’s partisan voting index and his prior victories that outpaced the district’s underlying lean. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, citing Steil’s established fundraising base and record of running ahead of top-of-ticket results. On the Democratic side, a crowded primary field scheduled for August 11 includes recent entrant Milwaukee Alderman Peter Burgelis alongside other challengers, yet none have consolidated significant resources or broad name recognition. Recent polling shows Steil ahead in head-to-head matchups, though the outcome remains sensitive to primary results, general-election turnout in key counties, and any national midterm dynamics that could narrow or widen the current implied probability.