Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Katie Porter to secure one of the top-two spots in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary, with odds implying around 65% probability, driven by her leading position in recent USC-Dornsife and PPIC polls at 22-25% support amid strong fundraising over $5 million. State Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins trails closely at 13-15%, positioning her as the likely second advancer under the top-two system, while Attorney General Rob Bonta and Superintendent Tony Thurmond lag. Vice President Kamala Harris's recent decision not to run boosted Porter's standing. Republicans like Sheriff Chad Bianco poll under 5%. Key upcoming events include candidate qualification by December 2025, further polls, and potential debates before the March 2026 primary.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$117,404 Vol.
Eric Swalwell
71%
Steve Hilton
54%
Elaine Culotti
50%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
26%
Matt Mahan
21%
Katie Porter
18%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
7%
Sharifah Hardie
7%
Ché Ahn
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Ethan Agarwal
4%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
David Thelen
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
13%
Raji Rab
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Sophia Brink
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Ramsey Robinson
2%
Zoltan Istvan
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Brandon Jones
2%
Thunder Parley
1%
Butch Ware
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
$117,404 Vol.
Eric Swalwell
71%
Steve Hilton
54%
Elaine Culotti
50%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
26%
Matt Mahan
21%
Katie Porter
18%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
7%
Sharifah Hardie
7%
Ché Ahn
6%
Tony Thurmond
6%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Ethan Agarwal
4%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
David Thelen
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
13%
Raji Rab
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Sophia Brink
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Ramsey Robinson
2%
Zoltan Istvan
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Brandon Jones
2%
Thunder Parley
1%
Butch Ware
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Katie Porter to secure one of the top-two spots in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary, with odds implying around 65% probability, driven by her leading position in recent USC-Dornsife and PPIC polls at 22-25% support amid strong fundraising over $5 million. State Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins trails closely at 13-15%, positioning her as the likely second advancer under the top-two system, while Attorney General Rob Bonta and Superintendent Tony Thurmond lag. Vice President Kamala Harris's recent decision not to run boosted Porter's standing. Republicans like Sheriff Chad Bianco poll under 5%. Key upcoming events include candidate qualification by December 2025, further polls, and potential debates before the March 2026 primary.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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