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Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

$1,270,755 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$1,270,755 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$42,444 Vol.

4%

↑ 5,25%

$135,732 Vol.

6%

↑ 5,0%

$10,011 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$65,482 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$10,209 Vol.

5%

↑ 4,25%

$21,881 Vol.

10%

↓ 3,25%

$53,133 Vol.

65%

↓ 3,0%

$215,443 Vol.

32%

↓ 2,75%

$250,398 Vol.

18%

↓ 2,5%

$171,423 Vol.

15%

↓ 2,25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2,0%

$15,035 Vol.

11%

↓ 1,75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,5%

$24,836 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1,0%

$0 Vol.

10%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,5%

$89,227 Vol.

7%

↓ 0,25%

$117,253 Vol.

7%

↓ 0%

$10,116 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects expectations of the federal funds rate dipping toward low-3% before 2027, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 FOMC decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median 3.4% end-2026 rate, with further easing implied to around 3% by year-end 2027, aligning with CME Fed funds futures pricing a terminal rate near 3.30% despite 95% odds of an April 28-29 hold. Upcoming March CPI release on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift rate cut timing if labor weakens further or disinflation persists.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,270,755
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects expectations of the federal funds rate dipping toward low-3% before 2027, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 FOMC decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment rising to 4.4%. The updated dot plot projects a median 3.4% end-2026 rate, with further easing implied to around 3% by year-end 2027, aligning with CME Fed funds futures pricing a terminal rate near 3.30% despite 95% odds of an April 28-29 hold. Upcoming March CPI release on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls could shift rate cut timing if labor weakens further or disinflation persists.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,270,755
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3,25%" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3,25%" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.