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Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?

Market icon
Finanças·Jerome Powell

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?

$273,873 Vol.

31 mar 2026
Polymarket

$273,873 Vol.

Polymarket

4,3%

$19,159 Vol.

Sim

4,4%

$94,800 Vol.

Sim

4,5%

$70,934 Vol.

Não

4,6%

$26,445 Vol.

Não

4,8%

$30,073 Vol.

Não

5,0%

$32,461 Vol.

Não

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield surged to a March peak of 4.44% on March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—fueled by oil price spikes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, reigniting inflation fears and prompting traders to slash bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Yields retreated to 4.31% by the March 31 close as Fed Chair Powell's remarks tempered hike concerns, with the benchmark stabilizing near 4.30% on April 1 amid lighter trading volume. Polymarket trader consensus captured this volatility, pricing heightened uncertainty around inflation data and labor market strength; upcoming April nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases remain pivotal for post-deadline yield path expectations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$273,873
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield surged to a March peak of 4.44% on March 27, 2026—its highest since July 2025—fueled by oil price spikes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, reigniting inflation fears and prompting traders to slash bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Yields retreated to 4.31% by the March 31 close as Fed Chair Powell's remarks tempered hike concerns, with the benchmark stabilizing near 4.30% on April 1 amid lighter trading volume. Polymarket trader consensus captured this volatility, pricing heightened uncertainty around inflation data and labor market strength; upcoming April nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases remain pivotal for post-deadline yield path expectations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$273,873
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,3%" at 100%, followed by "4,4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?" has generated $273.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?" is "4,3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos até 31 de março?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.