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Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

$1,274,981 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$1,274,981 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$43,011 Vol.

4%

↑ 5,25%

$136,294 Vol.

5%

↑ 5,0%

$10,055 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$65,847 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$10,462 Vol.

6%

↑ 4,25%

$21,882 Vol.

9%

↓ 3,25%

$53,702 Vol.

66%

↓ 3,0%

$215,939 Vol.

35%

↓ 2,75%

$250,425 Vol.

19%

↓ 2,5%

$172,087 Vol.

19%

↓ 2,25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2,0%

$15,041 Vol.

11%

↓ 1,75%

$5,983 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,5%

$24,836 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1,0%

$0 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Vol.

12%

↓ 0,5%

$89,265 Vol.

5%

↓ 0,25%

$117,777 Vol.

6%

↓ 0%

$10,187 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding the federal funds rate target at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting at the March 17–18, 2026 FOMC, with the effective rate steady near 3.64%. The updated dot plot projects a median 3.40% by year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point cut—amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and softening labor data showing a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. CME FedWatch implies over 98% odds of an April 28–29 hold, with futures pricing a flat path around 3.6% through mid-year due to persistent core PCE near 2.8% and oil price pressures. Key catalysts include upcoming April jobs and inflation releases ahead of June's dot plot update.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,274,981
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Federal Reserve's cautious stance after holding the federal funds rate target at 3.50%–3.75% for a second straight meeting at the March 17–18, 2026 FOMC, with the effective rate steady near 3.64%. The updated dot plot projects a median 3.40% by year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point cut—amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and softening labor data showing a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payrolls drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. CME FedWatch implies over 98% odds of an April 28–29 hold, with futures pricing a flat path around 3.6% through mid-year due to persistent core PCE near 2.8% and oil price pressures. Key catalysts include upcoming April jobs and inflation releases ahead of June's dot plot update.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,274,981
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3,25%" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3,25%" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.