Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's track record of narrow victories in this Republican-leaning R+2 district—defeating challengers in 2022 and 2024—anchors trader consensus at 73.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting her moderate appeal to working-class voters and independents amid a fragmented Republican primary field. Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss Up as of March 12, citing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun as Perez's likely opponent after former contender Joe Kent's departure. Recent candidate filings, including Republican Wadi Yakhour on March 17, have crowded the nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, with filing deadline May 8; no public polling has emerged, leaving odds shaped by incumbency and historical overperformance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-03
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-03
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Partido Democrata
73%
Partido Republicano
28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Partido Democrata
$0 Vol.
73%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's track record of narrow victories in this Republican-leaning R+2 district—defeating challengers in 2022 and 2024—anchors trader consensus at 73.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting her moderate appeal to working-class voters and independents amid a fragmented Republican primary field. Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss Up as of March 12, citing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun as Perez's likely opponent after former contender Joe Kent's departure. Recent candidate filings, including Republican Wadi Yakhour on March 17, have crowded the nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, with filing deadline May 8; no public polling has emerged, leaving odds shaped by incumbency and historical overperformance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's track record of narrow victories in this Republican-leaning R+2 district—defeating challengers in 2022 and 2024—anchors trader consensus at 73.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting her moderate appeal to working-class voters and independents amid a fragmented Republican primary field. Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss Up as of March 12, citing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun as Perez's likely opponent after former contender Joe Kent's departure. Recent candidate filings, including Republican Wadi Yakhour on March 17, have crowded the nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, with filing deadline May 8; no public polling has emerged, leaving odds shaped by incumbency and historical overperformance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Data de Término
Nov 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's track record of narrow victories in this Republican-leaning R+2 district—defeating challengers in 2022 and 2024—anchors trader consensus at 73.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting her moderate appeal to working-class voters and independents amid a fragmented Republican primary field. Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss Up as of March 12, citing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun as Perez's likely opponent after former contender Joe Kent's departure. Recent candidate filings, including Republican Wadi Yakhour on March 17, have crowded the nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, with filing deadline May 8; no public polling has emerged, leaving odds shaped by incumbency and historical overperformance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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