Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35%, closely trailed by $900 billion–$1 trillion at 26.5%, signaling uncertainty over President Trump's tariff policies' full-year impact. January's deficit plunged 25% to $54.7 billion amid import front-loading before new duties, boosting hopes for contraction, but February's widened gap to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as record exports were offset by rising imports, highlighting volatility. Aggressive measures like the February temporary 10% import surcharge and USTR's America First agenda aim to curb deficits with China, Mexico, and others, yet persistent consumer demand and dollar strength sustain high imports. Monthly BEA data through December, alongside trade negotiations and GDP trends, will likely determine separation toward narrower or wider bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
9%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
8%
700–800 bilhões
12%
800–900B
35%
900B–1T
27%
1T–1,1T
12%
1,1T+
14%
$17,416 Vol.
$17,416 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,379 Vol.
9%
500–600B
$0 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$0 Vol.
8%
700–800 bilhões
$0 Vol.
12%
800–900B
$0 Vol.
35%
900B–1T
$635 Vol.
27%
1T–1,1T
$0 Vol.
12%
1,1T+
$402 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35%, closely trailed by $900 billion–$1 trillion at 26.5%, signaling uncertainty over President Trump's tariff policies' full-year impact. January's deficit plunged 25% to $54.7 billion amid import front-loading before new duties, boosting hopes for contraction, but February's widened gap to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as record exports were offset by rising imports, highlighting volatility. Aggressive measures like the February temporary 10% import surcharge and USTR's America First agenda aim to curb deficits with China, Mexico, and others, yet persistent consumer demand and dollar strength sustain high imports. Monthly BEA data through December, alongside trade negotiations and GDP trends, will likely determine separation toward narrower or wider bins.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$17,416Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35%, closely trailed by $900 billion–$1 trillion at 26.5%, signaling uncertainty over President Trump's tariff policies' full-year impact. January's deficit plunged 25% to $54.7 billion amid import front-loading before new duties, boosting hopes for contraction, but February's widened gap to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as record exports were offset by rising imports, highlighting volatility. Aggressive measures like the February temporary 10% import surcharge and USTR's America First agenda aim to curb deficits with China, Mexico, and others, yet persistent consumer demand and dollar strength sustain high imports. Monthly BEA data through December, alongside trade negotiations and GDP trends, will likely determine separation toward narrower or wider bins.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$17,416Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35%, closely trailed by $900 billion–$1 trillion at 26.5%, signaling uncertainty over President Trump's tariff policies' full-year impact. January's deficit plunged 25% to $54.7 billion amid import front-loading before new duties, boosting hopes for contraction, but February's widened gap to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as record exports were offset by rising imports, highlighting volatility. Aggressive measures like the February temporary 10% import surcharge and USTR's America First agenda aim to curb deficits with China, Mexico, and others, yet persistent consumer demand and dollar strength sustain high imports. Monthly BEA data through December, alongside trade negotiations and GDP trends, will likely determine separation toward narrower or wider bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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