Tight cattle supplies at multi-decade lows, driven by persistent drought and herd contraction, continue to anchor elevated ground beef prices amid resilient consumer demand. Ground beef averaged $6.70 per pound in March 2026, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while the USDA projects overall beef prices to rise more than 10% for the year, with potential upside to 18% depending on feed costs and import volumes. Lean beef imports are rising to offset limited domestic cull cow production, supporting blended ground product values even as fed cattle carcass weights hit records and create fat-trim surpluses. Retail prices near $9–10 per pound are testing affordability, with seasonal grilling demand likely providing near-term support before any later-year moderation from gradual herd stabilization.