US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States stalled last week amid a new Russian spring offensive along the front lines and distractions from Middle East escalations, driving trader consensus to a 68.5% implied probability against a ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent rounds in Florida and prior venues like Geneva and Abu Dhabi yielded POW exchanges but no progress on core disputes, including US suggestions linking Ukraine's security guarantees to Donbas concessions, which Kyiv rejects. Russia continues heavy drone and missile strikes—nearly 1,000 in late March—while investing billions in occupied territories, signaling entrenched positions. Moscow expressed hope for resumed US talks soon, but ongoing military actions reflect the wisdom of crowds pricing in prolonged attrition over near-term de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$12,283,586 Vol.
$12,283,586 Vol.
Sim
$12,283,586 Vol.
$12,283,586 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States stalled last week amid a new Russian spring offensive along the front lines and distractions from Middle East escalations, driving trader consensus to a 68.5% implied probability against a ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent rounds in Florida and prior venues like Geneva and Abu Dhabi yielded POW exchanges but no progress on core disputes, including US suggestions linking Ukraine's security guarantees to Donbas concessions, which Kyiv rejects. Russia continues heavy drone and missile strikes—nearly 1,000 in late March—while investing billions in occupied territories, signaling entrenched positions. Moscow expressed hope for resumed US talks soon, but ongoing military actions reflect the wisdom of crowds pricing in prolonged attrition over near-term de-escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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