Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek's recent March re-election announcement has solidified her frontrunner status in the May 19 primary, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 87% for the November 3 general election victory amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration supermajority and historical statewide dominance. Early FM3 polling from late January to early February showed Kotek leading potential Republican nominees Christine Drazan 45-40%, Ed Diehl 43-37%, and Chris Dudley 45-35%, reflecting her fundraising edge and endorsements despite vulnerabilities on homelessness and public safety. A crowded, fragmented GOP primary with no unified challenger further tilts odds heavily Democratic, though primary outcomes and issues like a gas tax referendum could influence turnout.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrata
87%
Republicano
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrata
$0 Vol.
87%
Republicano
$4,994 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek's recent March re-election announcement has solidified her frontrunner status in the May 19 primary, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 87% for the November 3 general election victory amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration supermajority and historical statewide dominance. Early FM3 polling from late January to early February showed Kotek leading potential Republican nominees Christine Drazan 45-40%, Ed Diehl 43-37%, and Chris Dudley 45-35%, reflecting her fundraising edge and endorsements despite vulnerabilities on homelessness and public safety. A crowded, fragmented GOP primary with no unified challenger further tilts odds heavily Democratic, though primary outcomes and issues like a gas tax referendum could influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$4,994Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek's recent March re-election announcement has solidified her frontrunner status in the May 19 primary, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 87% for the November 3 general election victory amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration supermajority and historical statewide dominance. Early FM3 polling from late January to early February showed Kotek leading potential Republican nominees Christine Drazan 45-40%, Ed Diehl 43-37%, and Chris Dudley 45-35%, reflecting her fundraising edge and endorsements despite vulnerabilities on homelessness and public safety. A crowded, fragmented GOP primary with no unified challenger further tilts odds heavily Democratic, though primary outcomes and issues like a gas tax referendum could influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$4,994Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek's recent March re-election announcement has solidified her frontrunner status in the May 19 primary, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 87% for the November 3 general election victory amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration supermajority and historical statewide dominance. Early FM3 polling from late January to early February showed Kotek leading potential Republican nominees Christine Drazan 45-40%, Ed Diehl 43-37%, and Chris Dudley 45-35%, reflecting her fundraising edge and endorsements despite vulnerabilities on homelessness and public safety. A crowded, fragmented GOP primary with no unified challenger further tilts odds heavily Democratic, though primary outcomes and issues like a gas tax referendum could influence turnout.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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