Long-serving Republican incumbent Frank Lucas, chairman emeritus of the House Agriculture Committee, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory in Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with Cook PVI R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—where Donald Trump garnered 72% in 2024. Ahead of the April 3 filing deadline, Lucas faces a long-shot primary challenger in Michael DiMario on June 16, while Democrat Jules Roberson runs unopposed in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann eyes the November 3 general. No polling exists yet, but Lucas's history of dominant wins (73% in 2024 primary; unopposed generals) sustains the lopsided odds. Late-breaking scenarios like a Lucas primary upset, health issues, scandal, or massive national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoOK-03 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
OK-03 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
$32,050 Vol.
$32,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Democrata
7%
$32,050 Vol.
$32,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$18,871 Vol.
92%
Partido Democrata
$13,179 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Frank Lucas, chairman emeritus of the House Agriculture Committee, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory in Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with Cook PVI R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—where Donald Trump garnered 72% in 2024. Ahead of the April 3 filing deadline, Lucas faces a long-shot primary challenger in Michael DiMario on June 16, while Democrat Jules Roberson runs unopposed in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann eyes the November 3 general. No polling exists yet, but Lucas's history of dominant wins (73% in 2024 primary; unopposed generals) sustains the lopsided odds. Late-breaking scenarios like a Lucas primary upset, health issues, scandal, or massive national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,050Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Frank Lucas, chairman emeritus of the House Agriculture Committee, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory in Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with Cook PVI R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—where Donald Trump garnered 72% in 2024. Ahead of the April 3 filing deadline, Lucas faces a long-shot primary challenger in Michael DiMario on June 16, while Democrat Jules Roberson runs unopposed in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann eyes the November 3 general. No polling exists yet, but Lucas's history of dominant wins (73% in 2024 primary; unopposed generals) sustains the lopsided odds. Late-breaking scenarios like a Lucas primary upset, health issues, scandal, or massive national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,050Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Frank Lucas, chairman emeritus of the House Agriculture Committee, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP victory in Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with Cook PVI R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—where Donald Trump garnered 72% in 2024. Ahead of the April 3 filing deadline, Lucas faces a long-shot primary challenger in Michael DiMario on June 16, while Democrat Jules Roberson runs unopposed in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann eyes the November 3 general. No polling exists yet, but Lucas's history of dominant wins (73% in 2024 primary; unopposed generals) sustains the lopsided odds. Late-breaking scenarios like a Lucas primary upset, health issues, scandal, or massive national Democratic turnout surge could challenge this positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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