Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices over 6,000 US flight delays on March 26 at 100%, driven by real-time FAA data showing the threshold already exceeded early in the day amid severe weather disruptions. Widespread thunderstorms and high winds across key hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta triggered ground delay programs, impacting thousands of flights during peak spring break travel volume. FlightAware and DOT reports confirm over 5,000 delays by midday, with cancellations compounding the total. This commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of minimal recovery time remaining. Scenarios that could challenge it include rapid weather dissipation or post-day data revisions reclassifying delays, though FAA historical patterns make these improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNumber of US Flights Delayed March 26?
Number of US Flights Delayed March 26?
>6,000 100.0%
<3,000 <1%
3,000-3,500 <1%
3,500-4,000 <1%
$12,297 Vol.
$12,297 Vol.
<3,000
No
3,000-3,500
No
3,500-4,000
No
4,000-4,500
No
4,500-5,000
No
5,000-5,500
No
5,500-6,000
No
>6,000
Yes
>6,000 100.0%
<3,000 <1%
3,000-3,500 <1%
3,500-4,000 <1%
$12,297 Vol.
$12,297 Vol.
<3,000
No
3,000-3,500
No
3,500-4,000
No
4,000-4,500
No
4,500-5,000
No
5,000-5,500
No
5,500-6,000
No
>6,000
Yes
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices over 6,000 US flight delays on March 26 at 100%, driven by real-time FAA data showing the threshold already exceeded early in the day amid severe weather disruptions. Widespread thunderstorms and high winds across key hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta triggered ground delay programs, impacting thousands of flights during peak spring break travel volume. FlightAware and DOT reports confirm over 5,000 delays by midday, with cancellations compounding the total. This commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of minimal recovery time remaining. Scenarios that could challenge it include rapid weather dissipation or post-day data revisions reclassifying delays, though FAA historical patterns make these improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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