Louisiana's deep Republican lean, where Trump exceeded 60% in 2024 and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 2014, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election, reflecting weak Democratic primary contenders like Nick Albares and Gary Crockett lacking resources or recognition. Recent March polls highlight a competitive GOP primary on May 16—incumbent Bill Cassidy leads aggregates at 26% amid undecideds near 30%, but challenger Julia Letlow (Trump-endorsed) shows strength in her sponsored surveys (+12), with Treasurer John Fleming close—yet forecasters rate the race Solid Republican regardless of nominee, barring unprecedented scandal or turnout surge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
90%
Democrata
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
$1,641 Vol.
90%
Democrata
$2,147 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's deep Republican lean, where Trump exceeded 60% in 2024 and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 2014, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election, reflecting weak Democratic primary contenders like Nick Albares and Gary Crockett lacking resources or recognition. Recent March polls highlight a competitive GOP primary on May 16—incumbent Bill Cassidy leads aggregates at 26% amid undecideds near 30%, but challenger Julia Letlow (Trump-endorsed) shows strength in her sponsored surveys (+12), with Treasurer John Fleming close—yet forecasters rate the race Solid Republican regardless of nominee, barring unprecedented scandal or turnout surge.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,788Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's deep Republican lean, where Trump exceeded 60% in 2024 and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 2014, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election, reflecting weak Democratic primary contenders like Nick Albares and Gary Crockett lacking resources or recognition. Recent March polls highlight a competitive GOP primary on May 16—incumbent Bill Cassidy leads aggregates at 26% amid undecideds near 30%, but challenger Julia Letlow (Trump-endorsed) shows strength in her sponsored surveys (+12), with Treasurer John Fleming close—yet forecasters rate the race Solid Republican regardless of nominee, barring unprecedented scandal or turnout surge.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$3,788Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's deep Republican lean, where Trump exceeded 60% in 2024 and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 2014, drives trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election, reflecting weak Democratic primary contenders like Nick Albares and Gary Crockett lacking resources or recognition. Recent March polls highlight a competitive GOP primary on May 16—incumbent Bill Cassidy leads aggregates at 26% amid undecideds near 30%, but challenger Julia Letlow (Trump-endorsed) shows strength in her sponsored surveys (+12), with Treasurer John Fleming close—yet forecasters rate the race Solid Republican regardless of nominee, barring unprecedented scandal or turnout surge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions