Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$133,969 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
UAE
94%
Bahrain
94%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
68%
Qatar
53%
Oman
40%
Syria
30%
Lebanon
29%
Yemen
16%
Pakistan
11%
Turkey
8%
Azerbaijan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
4%
Poland
4%
Ukraine
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Hungary
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Spain
2%
Georgia
2%
Armenia
2%
$133,969 Vol.
UAE
$1,264 Vol.
94%
Bahrain
$3,635 Vol.
94%
Kuwait
$1,135 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$482 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$1,594 Vol.
53%
Oman
$2,051 Vol.
40%
Syria
$283 Vol.
30%
Lebanon
$905 Vol.
29%
Yemen
$389 Vol.
16%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
8%
Azerbaijan
$568 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,793 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
4%
Poland
$27,897 Vol.
4%
Ukraine
$1,392 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,281 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$583 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$133,969Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$133,969Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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