Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone barrages against Israel, including cluster munitions targeting civilians as recently as March 24. Israel intensified pre-emptive strikes on key Iranian military sites on March 26, prompting Tehran to release damage images from US-Israeli attacks and issue IRGC warnings of unrestrained hits on Israeli forces in Gaza and northern Israel if operations in Lebanon persist. Diplomatic signals mix with escalation, as President Trump claims ceasefire advances while strikes continue; traders weigh persistent Iranian missile capabilities against regime pressures and potential de-escalation talks before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$132,354 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
95%
UAE
93%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
68%
Qatar
49%
Oman
37%
Syria
29%
Lebanon
29%
Yemen
16%
Pakistan
11%
Azerbaijan
9%
Turkey
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
Ukraine
3%
France
3%
Hungary
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
$132,354 Vol.
Bahrain
$3,525 Vol.
95%
UAE
$684 Vol.
93%
Kuwait
$1,125 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$482 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$1,042 Vol.
49%
Oman
$2,051 Vol.
37%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Lebanon
$895 Vol.
29%
Yemen
$389 Vol.
16%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Azerbaijan
$568 Vol.
9%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Poland
$27,797 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,281 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$1,340 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$583 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone barrages against Israel, including cluster munitions targeting civilians as recently as March 24. Israel intensified pre-emptive strikes on key Iranian military sites on March 26, prompting Tehran to release damage images from US-Israeli attacks and issue IRGC warnings of unrestrained hits on Israeli forces in Gaza and northern Israel if operations in Lebanon persist. Diplomatic signals mix with escalation, as President Trump claims ceasefire advances while strikes continue; traders weigh persistent Iranian missile capabilities against regime pressures and potential de-escalation talks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$132,354Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone barrages against Israel, including cluster munitions targeting civilians as recently as March 24. Israel intensified pre-emptive strikes on key Iranian military sites on March 26, prompting Tehran to release damage images from US-Israeli attacks and issue IRGC warnings of unrestrained hits on Israeli forces in Gaza and northern Israel if operations in Lebanon persist. Diplomatic signals mix with escalation, as President Trump claims ceasefire advances while strikes continue; traders weigh persistent Iranian missile capabilities against regime pressures and potential de-escalation talks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$132,354Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with massive airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone barrages against Israel, including cluster munitions targeting civilians as recently as March 24. Israel intensified pre-emptive strikes on key Iranian military sites on March 26, prompting Tehran to release damage images from US-Israeli attacks and issue IRGC warnings of unrestrained hits on Israeli forces in Gaza and northern Israel if operations in Lebanon persist. Diplomatic signals mix with escalation, as President Trump claims ceasefire advances while strikes continue; traders weigh persistent Iranian missile capabilities against regime pressures and potential de-escalation talks before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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