Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 98.5% implied probability, backed by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service data showing at least 184 confirmed tornadoes through March 26—spurred by major outbreaks on March 5–7 (30 tornadoes), March 10–12 (over 90), March 12 (43), and March 15 (43), fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with potent jet stream dynamics. This shatters typical March averages of 80–100, aligning with recent hyperactive springs amid La Niña influences. Final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies could trim counts via downgrades (historical 65% confirmation rate from reports), but massive revisions would be needed to dip below 150, unlikely with three days remaining and vigilant radar surveillance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em março?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em março?
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
70–99 <1%
100–129 <1%
$124,449 Vol.
$124,449 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
98%
150+ 98.4%
130–149 <1%
70–99 <1%
100–129 <1%
$124,449 Vol.
$124,449 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
$25,180 Vol.
<1%
70–99
$22,659 Vol.
<1%
100–129
$28,481 Vol.
<1%
130–149
$0 Vol.
1%
150+
$48,129 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 98.5% implied probability, backed by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service data showing at least 184 confirmed tornadoes through March 26—spurred by major outbreaks on March 5–7 (30 tornadoes), March 10–12 (over 90), March 12 (43), and March 15 (43), fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with potent jet stream dynamics. This shatters typical March averages of 80–100, aligning with recent hyperactive springs amid La Niña influences. Final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies could trim counts via downgrades (historical 65% confirmation rate from reports), but massive revisions would be needed to dip below 150, unlikely with three days remaining and vigilant radar surveillance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$124,449Data de Término
Apr 10, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 98.5% implied probability, backed by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service data showing at least 184 confirmed tornadoes through March 26—spurred by major outbreaks on March 5–7 (30 tornadoes), March 10–12 (over 90), March 12 (43), and March 15 (43), fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with potent jet stream dynamics. This shatters typical March averages of 80–100, aligning with recent hyperactive springs amid La Niña influences. Final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies could trim counts via downgrades (historical 65% confirmation rate from reports), but massive revisions would be needed to dip below 150, unlikely with three days remaining and vigilant radar surveillance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$124,449Data de Término
Apr 10, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 98.5% implied probability, backed by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service data showing at least 184 confirmed tornadoes through March 26—spurred by major outbreaks on March 5–7 (30 tornadoes), March 10–12 (over 90), March 12 (43), and March 15 (43), fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with potent jet stream dynamics. This shatters typical March averages of 80–100, aligning with recent hyperactive springs amid La Niña influences. Final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies could trim counts via downgrades (historical 65% confirmation rate from reports), but massive revisions would be needed to dip below 150, unlikely with three days remaining and vigilant radar surveillance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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