Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with 268 preliminary reports through March 23 per Storm Prediction Center data—43% above the three-year January-March average of 188. Multiple March outbreaks, including deadly EF3 tornadoes across the Midwest and South from March 5–16 producing over 150 events, have front-loaded activity amid favorable atmospheric patterns like a transitioning ENSO-neutral phase boosting Gulf moisture and jet stream dynamics. Historical precedents of 1,791 tornadoes in 2024 and elevated counts in recent years support higher bins, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak April–June months; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
1250+ 41%
1000–1049 19%
<950 18%
950–999 15.0%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<950
18%
950–999
15%
1000–1049
19%
1050–1099
16%
1100–1149
13%
1150–1199
11%
1200–1249
17%
1250+
41%
1250+ 41%
1000–1049 19%
<950 18%
950–999 15.0%
NEW
NEW
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$0 Vol.
18%
950–999
$0 Vol.
15%
1000–1049
$0 Vol.
19%
1050–1099
$0 Vol.
16%
1100–1149
$0 Vol.
13%
1150–1199
$0 Vol.
11%
1200–1249
$0 Vol.
17%
1250+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with 268 preliminary reports through March 23 per Storm Prediction Center data—43% above the three-year January-March average of 188. Multiple March outbreaks, including deadly EF3 tornadoes across the Midwest and South from March 5–16 producing over 150 events, have front-loaded activity amid favorable atmospheric patterns like a transitioning ENSO-neutral phase boosting Gulf moisture and jet stream dynamics. Historical precedents of 1,791 tornadoes in 2024 and elevated counts in recent years support higher bins, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak April–June months; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Jan 10, 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with 268 preliminary reports through March 23 per Storm Prediction Center data—43% above the three-year January-March average of 188. Multiple March outbreaks, including deadly EF3 tornadoes across the Midwest and South from March 5–16 producing over 150 events, have front-loaded activity amid favorable atmospheric patterns like a transitioning ENSO-neutral phase boosting Gulf moisture and jet stream dynamics. Historical precedents of 1,791 tornadoes in 2024 and elevated counts in recent years support higher bins, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak April–June months; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0Data de Término
Jan 10, 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with 268 preliminary reports through March 23 per Storm Prediction Center data—43% above the three-year January-March average of 188. Multiple March outbreaks, including deadly EF3 tornadoes across the Midwest and South from March 5–16 producing over 150 events, have front-loaded activity amid favorable atmospheric patterns like a transitioning ENSO-neutral phase boosting Gulf moisture and jet stream dynamics. Historical precedents of 1,791 tornadoes in 2024 and elevated counts in recent years support higher bins, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists into peak April–June months; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions