Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of exactly 20°C in Chongqing on March 21, driven by converged ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs stabilizing around 20°C amid mild spring conditions with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations confirm recent days peaking near 19-20°C, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover at 17-21°C based on 30-year normals, minimizing outlier risks. This positioning reflects low model spread and high forecast skill for short-range predictions. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm advection from upstream ridges pushing above 21°C or localized urban heat island amplification exceeding model biases by 1-2°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chongqing em 21 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chongqing em 21 de março?
$35,207 Vol.
$35,207 Vol.
20°C
100%
21°C ou mais
<1%
$35,207 Vol.
$35,207 Vol.
20°C
100%
21°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of exactly 20°C in Chongqing on March 21, driven by converged ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs stabilizing around 20°C amid mild spring conditions with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations confirm recent days peaking near 19-20°C, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover at 17-21°C based on 30-year normals, minimizing outlier risks. This positioning reflects low model spread and high forecast skill for short-range predictions. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm advection from upstream ridges pushing above 21°C or localized urban heat island amplification exceeding model biases by 1-2°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions