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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 15.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.4%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,352 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 15.0%

Jim Oberweis 8.4%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,352 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,511 Vol.

53%

Madison Cawthorn

$756 Vol.

15%

Jim Oberweis

$2,084 Vol.

8%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

15%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

4%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf leads trader consensus at 53.5% implied probability in the open FL-19 Republican primary, fueled by her early endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February and positioning as a Trump-aligned conservative challenger with solid Q1 2026 fundraising of over $430,000. Madison Cawthorn holds 15% on name recognition from his prior House service and a late-February endorsement from dropping candidate Johnny Fratto, despite past controversies. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel sits at 14% thanks to superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1.2 million as of late 2025 and Southwest Florida roots. Jim Oberweis lags at 8.5% despite massive self-funding nearing $3 million, likely due to his Illinois background in this safe Republican district. The field remains fluid post-Byron Donalds' gubernatorial pivot—where he dominates recent polls—ahead of the June filing deadline and August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,352
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf leads trader consensus at 53.5% implied probability in the open FL-19 Republican primary, fueled by her early endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February and positioning as a Trump-aligned conservative challenger with solid Q1 2026 fundraising of over $430,000. Madison Cawthorn holds 15% on name recognition from his prior House service and a late-February endorsement from dropping candidate Johnny Fratto, despite past controversies. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel sits at 14% thanks to superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1.2 million as of late 2025 and Southwest Florida roots. Jim Oberweis lags at 8.5% despite massive self-funding nearing $3 million, likely due to his Illinois background in this safe Republican district. The field remains fluid post-Byron Donalds' gubernatorial pivot—where he dominates recent polls—ahead of the June filing deadline and August 18 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,352
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 54%, followed by "Madison Cawthorn" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" has generated $18.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is "Catalina Lauf" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Cawthorn" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.