Trader consensus prices a near-certainty of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool's 97-98% implied probability for holding the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, driven by an oil price surge from Middle East tensions that has reignited inflation fears and shrunk 2026 easing expectations to one cut per the March 18 dot plot. February CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but nonfarm payrolls contracted 92,000 amid labor market softening; key catalysts include tomorrow's March jobs report, April 10 CPI release, and the upcoming policy session, where persistent energy pressures could even elevate modest hike risks to 5-10%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,265,864 Vol.
Reunião de abril
1%
Reunião de junho
11%
Reunião de julho
24%
Reunião de Setembro
49%
Reunião de Outubro
54%
Reunião de Dezembro
64%
$1,265,864 Vol.
Reunião de abril
1%
Reunião de junho
11%
Reunião de julho
24%
Reunião de Setembro
49%
Reunião de Outubro
54%
Reunião de Dezembro
64%
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certainty of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool's 97-98% implied probability for holding the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, driven by an oil price surge from Middle East tensions that has reignited inflation fears and shrunk 2026 easing expectations to one cut per the March 18 dot plot. February CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but nonfarm payrolls contracted 92,000 amid labor market softening; key catalysts include tomorrow's March jobs report, April 10 CPI release, and the upcoming policy session, where persistent energy pressures could even elevate modest hike risks to 5-10%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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