Polymarket traders show fragmented consensus on Elon Musk's April 2026 tweet volume, with the 1480-1519 bin leading at 11.3% implied probability, closely rivaled by 1400-1439 (9.8%) and 1280-1319 (9.3%), reflecting extrapolated averages of 43-50 posts daily from his 2024 pace of roughly 1,200-1,500 monthly amid sustained X engagement. Recent post-election fervor, including over 1,200 posts in October 2024 tied to Trump campaign and DOGE announcements, has anchored expectations around this mid-1400s cluster, though no slowdown materialized in the past 30 days despite policy shifts. Competitive dynamics hinge on variables like government duties, SpaceX milestones, or platform algorithm changes, with upcoming 2025 activity as a key sentiment gauge before the distant resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado1480-1519 11.2%
1400-1439 9.8%
1280-1319 9.2%
1360-1399 8.8%
$4,314,442 Vol.
$4,314,442 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
8%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
10%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
11%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
6%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1480-1519 11.2%
1400-1439 9.8%
1280-1319 9.2%
1360-1399 8.8%
$4,314,442 Vol.
$4,314,442 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
<1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
8%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
10%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
11%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
6%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show fragmented consensus on Elon Musk's April 2026 tweet volume, with the 1480-1519 bin leading at 11.3% implied probability, closely rivaled by 1400-1439 (9.8%) and 1280-1319 (9.3%), reflecting extrapolated averages of 43-50 posts daily from his 2024 pace of roughly 1,200-1,500 monthly amid sustained X engagement. Recent post-election fervor, including over 1,200 posts in October 2024 tied to Trump campaign and DOGE announcements, has anchored expectations around this mid-1400s cluster, though no slowdown materialized in the past 30 days despite policy shifts. Competitive dynamics hinge on variables like government duties, SpaceX milestones, or platform algorithm changes, with upcoming 2025 activity as a key sentiment gauge before the distant resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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