Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's recent March 2026 X posting pace of roughly 35-45 tweets per day, as tracked in resolved short-term markets like March 21-28 (475-499 posts) and ongoing March 24-31 bins implying 30+ daily, yielding a fragmented cluster around 1280-1439 total for April's 30 days. No dominant frontrunner emerges amid tight 7-10% implied probabilities, driven by Musk's volatile habits—spiking during Tesla FSD demos, Grok updates, and political commentary, as seen in his March 28 viral threads on voter ID and uniparty critiques. Key swing factors include early April SpaceX Starlink launches on April 2 and Cybercab robotaxi production start, potentially boosting engagement, while lulls from business travel could drag totals lower. Markets capture this skin-in-the-game uncertainty in Musk's signature real-time cultural pulse.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado1360-1399 9.2%
1400-1439 9.2%
1320-1359 8.9%
1280-1319 8.8%
$4,375,937 Vol.
$4,375,937 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
4%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
7%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
1360-1399 9.2%
1400-1439 9.2%
1320-1359 8.9%
1280-1319 8.8%
$4,375,937 Vol.
$4,375,937 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
1%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
4%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
7%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's recent March 2026 X posting pace of roughly 35-45 tweets per day, as tracked in resolved short-term markets like March 21-28 (475-499 posts) and ongoing March 24-31 bins implying 30+ daily, yielding a fragmented cluster around 1280-1439 total for April's 30 days. No dominant frontrunner emerges amid tight 7-10% implied probabilities, driven by Musk's volatile habits—spiking during Tesla FSD demos, Grok updates, and political commentary, as seen in his March 28 viral threads on voter ID and uniparty critiques. Key swing factors include early April SpaceX Starlink launches on April 2 and Cybercab robotaxi production start, potentially boosting engagement, while lulls from business travel could drag totals lower. Markets capture this skin-in-the-game uncertainty in Musk's signature real-time cultural pulse.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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