Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support easing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,250Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,250Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support easing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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