Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his executive record as California governor, national media presence, and post-2024 election positioning against Republican dominance. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal and youth among voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6.3% reflects his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground state. Kamala Harris lags at 4.7% after her 2024 defeat. Differentiators include gubernatorial experience for Newsom and Josh Shapiro, Senate profiles for Ossoff and Mark Kelly, and ideological lanes. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising prowess, and party endorsements amid high uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCandidato presidencial democrata 2028
Candidato presidencial democrata 2028
Gavin Newsom 24.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%
Jon Ossoff 6.3%
Kamala Harris 4.7%
$907,835,540 Vol.
$907,835,540 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
5%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Chris Murphy
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%
Gavin Newsom 24.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%
Jon Ossoff 6.3%
Kamala Harris 4.7%
$907,835,540 Vol.
$907,835,540 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
5%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

J.B. Pritzker
3%

Andy Beshear
2%

Mark Kelly
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

James Talarico
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Chris Murphy
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

John Fetterman
1%

LeBron James
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

MrBeast
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Barack Obama
1%

George Clooney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his executive record as California governor, national media presence, and post-2024 election positioning against Republican dominance. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 8.2% on progressive grassroots appeal and youth among voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6.3% reflects his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground state. Kamala Harris lags at 4.7% after her 2024 defeat. Differentiators include gubernatorial experience for Newsom and Josh Shapiro, Senate profiles for Ossoff and Mark Kelly, and ideological lanes. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising prowess, and party endorsements amid high uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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