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Eleições·MIDTERMS

CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Market icon
Eleições·MIDTERMS

CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 22%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$0 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$509 Vol.

31%

Ruth Fortune

$446 Vol.

6%

Jillian Gilchrest

$0 Vol.

4%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,355 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 13, driven by a mid-July Data for Progress poll showing him ahead 37% to Rep. John Larson's 25% among likely voters, plus Bronin's superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised versus Larson's $600,000. Incumbent Larson, serving since 1999 and facing anti-incumbent headwinds amid progressive critiques of his DCCC ties, holds at 27.5% on name recognition and committee seniority. Endorsements like EMILYs List for Bronin bolster his path in this urban district spanning Hartford and suburbs. Lower-tier candidates Ruth Fortune (6%), Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%), and Mark Stewart Greenstein (1.5%) lack polling traction or resources, with early voting now open potentially amplifying turnout dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$2,309
Data de Término
Aug 11, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 13, driven by a mid-July Data for Progress poll showing him ahead 37% to Rep. John Larson's 25% among likely voters, plus Bronin's superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised versus Larson's $600,000. Incumbent Larson, serving since 1999 and facing anti-incumbent headwinds amid progressive critiques of his DCCC ties, holds at 27.5% on name recognition and committee seniority. Endorsements like EMILYs List for Bronin bolster his path in this urban district spanning Hartford and suburbs. Lower-tier candidates Ruth Fortune (6%), Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%), and Mark Stewart Greenstein (1.5%) lack polling traction or resources, with early voting now open potentially amplifying turnout dynamics.

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin leads trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 13, driven by a mid-July Data for Progress poll showing him ahead 37% to Rep. John Larson's 25% among likely voters, plus Bronin's superior fundraising with over $1.1 million raised versus Larson's $600,000. Incumbent Larson, serving since 1999 and facing anti-incumbent headwinds amid progressive critiques of his DCCC ties, holds at 27.5% on name recognition and committee seniority. Endorsements like EMILYs List for Bronin bolster his path in this urban district spanning Hartford and suburbs. Lower-tier candidates Ruth Fortune (6%), Jillian Gilchrest (4.3%), and Mark Stewart Greenstein (1.5%) lack polling traction or resources, with early voting now open potentially amplifying turnout dynamics.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, followed by "John Larson" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Larson" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.