Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Bill Gates will not face criminal charges by June 30, driven by the absence of any active federal or state prosecutions from the DOJ, FBI, or other authorities. Recent scrutiny stems from early March House Oversight Committee requests for Gates to testify on past Jeffrey Epstein associations, following DOJ document releases detailing meetings post-Epstein's conviction, alongside a separate civil vaccine injury lawsuit in the Netherlands ruled to have jurisdiction but carrying no criminal implications or imminent timeline. Congressional inquiries and public calls, like Sen. Kennedy's fraud allegations, do not trigger indictments without prosecutorial action. Realistic shifts would require sudden evidence emergence, special counsel appointment, or grand jury proceedings—unlikely given historical delays in high-profile cases.