Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRedução 94.0%
Sem alteração 5.2%
Aumento <1%
$298,852 Vol.
$298,852 Vol.
28 abr 2026
Aumento
1%
Sem alteração
5%
Redução
94%
Redução 94.0%
Sem alteração 5.2%
Aumento <1%
$298,852 Vol.
$298,852 Vol.
28 abr 2026
Aumento
$156,459 Vol.
1%
Sem alteração
$69,237 Vol.
5%
Redução
$73,157 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$298,852Data de Término
28 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$298,852Data de Término
28 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, extending the easing cycle initiated with March's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% amid cooling core inflation pressures despite an oil shock. This positioning reflects Focus survey expectations of end-2026 Selic at 12.50%, BCB's projected inflation convergence to 3.3% by Q3 2027 within the 3% target band (±1.5%), and resilient labor market dynamics supporting gradual disinflation. March IPCA accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year on transport costs, yet markets dismiss near-term upside risks. A challenge could arise from sustained inflation surprises or fiscal expansion ahead of elections, potentially prompting a pause. The April decision, likely late-month, remains the key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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