March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and soaring gas costs, anchoring trader consensus for April's annual rate near 3.7-3.8%. Polymarket's market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with 3.7% at 40.2% edging 3.8% at 32.6%, as sticky shelter inflation (forecast above recent highs) and persistent core pressures vie against potential base-effect moderation in non-energy components. Key swing factors include latest oil volatility and April's month-over-month print; the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data May 12, with subsequent PPI influencing Fed rate path expectations amid officials' hawkish inflation warnings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$284,205 Vol.
$284,205 Vol.
12 mai 2026
≤3,1%
1%
3,2%
1%
3,3%
1%
3,4%
1%
3,5%
4%
3,6%
17%
3,7%
40%
3,8%
33%
3,9%
6%
4,0%
1%
≥4,1%
1%
$284,205 Vol.
$284,205 Vol.
12 mai 2026
≤3,1%
$15,265 Vol.
1%
3,2%
$10,022 Vol.
1%
3,3%
$9,978 Vol.
1%
3,4%
$12,560 Vol.
1%
3,5%
$23,899 Vol.
4%
3,6%
$31,718 Vol.
17%
3,7%
$45,089 Vol.
40%
3,8%
$64,866 Vol.
33%
3,9%
$36,746 Vol.
6%
4,0%
$16,191 Vol.
1%
≥4,1%
$18,369 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and soaring gas costs, anchoring trader consensus for April's annual rate near 3.7-3.8%. Polymarket's market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with 3.7% at 40.2% edging 3.8% at 32.6%, as sticky shelter inflation (forecast above recent highs) and persistent core pressures vie against potential base-effect moderation in non-energy components. Key swing factors include latest oil volatility and April's month-over-month print; the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data May 12, with subsequent PPI influencing Fed rate path expectations amid officials' hawkish inflation warnings.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$284,205Data de Término
12 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and soaring gas costs, anchoring trader consensus for April's annual rate near 3.7-3.8%. Polymarket's market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with 3.7% at 40.2% edging 3.8% at 32.6%, as sticky shelter inflation (forecast above recent highs) and persistent core pressures vie against potential base-effect moderation in non-energy components. Key swing factors include latest oil volatility and April's month-over-month print; the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data May 12, with subsequent PPI influencing Fed rate path expectations amid officials' hawkish inflation warnings.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$284,205Data de Término
12 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy price spike amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and soaring gas costs, anchoring trader consensus for April's annual rate near 3.7-3.8%. Polymarket's market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with 3.7% at 40.2% edging 3.8% at 32.6%, as sticky shelter inflation (forecast above recent highs) and persistent core pressures vie against potential base-effect moderation in non-energy components. Key swing factors include latest oil volatility and April's month-over-month print; the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data May 12, with subsequent PPI influencing Fed rate path expectations amid officials' hawkish inflation warnings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions