Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 Vol.
$1,056,849 Vol.
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
No
25 bps decrease
No
No change
No
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
Ja
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
Nein
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 Vol.
$1,056,849 Vol.
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
$111,059 Vol.
No
25 bps decrease
$131,618 Vol.
No
No change
$249,356 Vol.
No
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$272,346 Vol.
Ja
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$292,470 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,056,849Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$1,056,849Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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