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Economy·Global Rates

Bank of Mexico Decision in May

icon for Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Economy·Global Rates

Bank of Mexico Decision in May

Ended: May 7

Jun 25

Aug 6

Ended: May 7

Jun 25

Aug 6

Decrease 100.0%

No change <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$293,296 Vol.

Decrease 100.0%

No change <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$293,296 Vol.

Decrease

$105,263 Vol.

Yes

No change

$94,482 Vol.

No

Increase

$93,550 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$293,296
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$293,296
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Mexico Decision in May" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Decrease" at 100%, followed by "No change" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of Mexico Decision in May" has generated $293.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of Mexico Decision in May," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Mexico Decision in May" is "Decrease" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Mexico Decision in May" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.