Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at the May 7, 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting near-certainty after April's headline CPI eased to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59%—its first decline of the year—despite remaining above the 3% target. This builds on Banxico's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% in late March amid softening activity and downside inflation risks, aligning with TIIE 28 swap pricing for a further quarter-point reduction to 6.50%. Economists unanimously anticipate easing, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly sticky core inflation or external shocks like Middle East tensions, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.