Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.75% in May, reflecting caution after its surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26 amid a split 3-2 Governing Board vote and sticky headline inflation at 4.59% year-over-year in March. Governor Rodriguez's March 30 remarks signaled the easing cycle nearing completion, reinforced by April 9 minutes highlighting persistent price pressures despite low unemployment at 2.4%. A modest dip to 4.53% in first-half April CPI has buoyed 27.5% odds for a further decrease, while hikes remain negligible at 0.1% given cooling underlying dynamics. The May 7 decision looms as the key catalyst, with traders monitoring bi-weekly inflation and U.S. policy spillovers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Mexico Decision in May
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
No change 72%
Decrease 28%
Increase <1%
$116,964 Vol.
$116,964 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Decrease
28%
No change
72%
Increase
<1%
No change 72%
Decrease 28%
Increase <1%
$116,964 Vol.
$116,964 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Decrease
$39,803 Vol.
28%
No change
$41,499 Vol.
72%
Increase
$35,663 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.75% in May, reflecting caution after its surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26 amid a split 3-2 Governing Board vote and sticky headline inflation at 4.59% year-over-year in March. Governor Rodriguez's March 30 remarks signaled the easing cycle nearing completion, reinforced by April 9 minutes highlighting persistent price pressures despite low unemployment at 2.4%. A modest dip to 4.53% in first-half April CPI has buoyed 27.5% odds for a further decrease, while hikes remain negligible at 0.1% given cooling underlying dynamics. The May 7 decision looms as the key catalyst, with traders monitoring bi-weekly inflation and U.S. policy spillovers.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$116,964End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.75% in May, reflecting caution after its surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26 amid a split 3-2 Governing Board vote and sticky headline inflation at 4.59% year-over-year in March. Governor Rodriguez's March 30 remarks signaled the easing cycle nearing completion, reinforced by April 9 minutes highlighting persistent price pressures despite low unemployment at 2.4%. A modest dip to 4.53% in first-half April CPI has buoyed 27.5% odds for a further decrease, while hikes remain negligible at 0.1% given cooling underlying dynamics. The May 7 decision looms as the key catalyst, with traders monitoring bi-weekly inflation and U.S. policy spillovers.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$116,964End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.75% in May, reflecting caution after its surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26 amid a split 3-2 Governing Board vote and sticky headline inflation at 4.59% year-over-year in March. Governor Rodriguez's March 30 remarks signaled the easing cycle nearing completion, reinforced by April 9 minutes highlighting persistent price pressures despite low unemployment at 2.4%. A modest dip to 4.53% in first-half April CPI has buoyed 27.5% odds for a further decrease, while hikes remain negligible at 0.1% given cooling underlying dynamics. The May 7 decision looms as the key catalyst, with traders monitoring bi-weekly inflation and U.S. policy spillovers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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