Spain's trader consensus lead at 16% implied probability reflects their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping Group E with five wins and a draw (+19 GD)—paired with Euro 2024 glory and Lamine Yamal's breakout form, though defensive youth raises questions. The tight clustering among top outcomes underscores fierce competition: England's perfect 8-0-0 Group K sweep, France's depth (five wins from six despite Mbappé's knee sprain), Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champions, and Brazil's gritty fifth-place qualification in the grueling South American race. March playoffs finalized the expanded 48-team field sans elite shocks, while the December group draw delivered manageable paths (Spain vs. Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia/Uruguay), amplifying the wisdom of crowds in a deep, balanced contender landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$424,579,313 Vol.
$424,579,313 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$424,579,313 Vol.
$424,579,313 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's trader consensus lead at 16% implied probability reflects their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping Group E with five wins and a draw (+19 GD)—paired with Euro 2024 glory and Lamine Yamal's breakout form, though defensive youth raises questions. The tight clustering among top outcomes underscores fierce competition: England's perfect 8-0-0 Group K sweep, France's depth (five wins from six despite Mbappé's knee sprain), Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champions, and Brazil's gritty fifth-place qualification in the grueling South American race. March playoffs finalized the expanded 48-team field sans elite shocks, while the December group draw delivered manageable paths (Spain vs. Cape Verde/Saudi Arabia/Uruguay), amplifying the wisdom of crowds in a deep, balanced contender landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions