Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,107,233 Vol.
$427,107,233 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$427,107,233 Vol.
$427,107,233 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
$5,587,423 Vol.
16%
England
$6,549,838 Vol.
13%
France
$4,221,170 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$6,703,876 Vol.
10%
Brazil
$6,395,460 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$8,042,486 Vol.
7%
Germany
$6,718,442 Vol.
5%
Netherlands
$8,976,556 Vol.
3%
Norway
$7,422,696 Vol.
3%
Italy
$7,696,134 Vol.
2%
Belgium
$7,439,359 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$7,033,631 Vol.
2%
USA
$4,647,764 Vol.
2%
Morocco
$8,764,630 Vol.
2%
Japan
$8,584,020 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$7,382,307 Vol.
1%
Mexico
$6,675,804 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$7,866,510 Vol.
1%
Switzerland
$8,162,924 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$8,752,202 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$8,111,223 Vol.
1%
Canada
$11,452,322 Vol.
1%
Austria
$10,089,011 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$13,181,225 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$11,387,288 Vol.
<1%
Ivory Coast
$8,728,861 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$8,083,131 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$9,881,741 Vol.
<1%
Algeria
$10,236,069 Vol.
<1%
Scotland
$10,870,404 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$10,827,080 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$17,279,711 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$10,128,198 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$12,195,801 Vol.
<1%
Jordan
$16,199,824 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$19,774,974 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$11,268,734 Vol.
<1%
South Africa
$19,158,765 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$10,202,874 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$11,264,176 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$26,872,450 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand
$16,075,194 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$427,107,233End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$427,107,233End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, top FIFA ranking, and early UEFA qualification lock-in via dominant group play. France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil three days ago—Mbappé's opener and Ekitiké's strike holding firm despite Upamecano's red card—bolstered their 11% standing, underscoring depth amid tune-up tests. England (13%), defending champions Argentina (10%), and Brazil (9%) cluster tightly behind, fueled by elite squads, star power like Bellingham, Messi, and Vinícius Júnior, and favorable December group draws in the expanded 48-team format that heightens knockout volatility and upset risks across North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions