Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain 16.4%

France 12.8%

England 12.4%

Argentina 9.4%

Polymarket

$451,515,660 Vol.

Spain 16.4%

France 12.8%

England 12.4%

Argentina 9.4%

Polymarket

$451,515,660 Vol.

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Spain

$6,316,216 Vol.

16%

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France

$5,072,139 Vol.

13%

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England

$7,161,028 Vol.

12%

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Argentina

$7,265,543 Vol.

9%

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Brazil

$6,783,071 Vol.

9%

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Portugal

$8,367,156 Vol.

7%

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Germany

$6,974,844 Vol.

5%

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Netherlands

$9,321,213 Vol.

3%

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Norway

$7,543,772 Vol.

3%

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Belgium

$7,672,874 Vol.

2%

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Colombia

$7,149,860 Vol.

2%

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Japan

$9,056,068 Vol.

2%

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USA

$4,732,864 Vol.

2%

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Morocco

$8,994,797 Vol.

2%

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Switzerland

$8,637,689 Vol.

1%

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Uruguay

$7,572,045 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$7,975,580 Vol.

1%

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Mexico

$6,779,368 Vol.

1%

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Ecuador

$9,022,913 Vol.

1%

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Senegal

$8,296,673 Vol.

1%

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Sweden

$297,551 Vol.

1%

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Canada

$11,865,237 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$10,387,890 Vol.

1%

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South Korea

$13,594,641 Vol.

<1%

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Paraguay

$11,766,537 Vol.

<1%

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Ivory Coast

$9,136,532 Vol.

<1%

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Egypt

$10,729,672 Vol.

<1%

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Ghana

$10,312,745 Vol.

<1%

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Algeria

$11,091,322 Vol.

<1%

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Scotland

$11,172,224 Vol.

<1%

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Tunisia

$11,285,518 Vol.

<1%

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Australia

$8,216,987 Vol.

<1%

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Saudi Arabia

$17,656,359 Vol.

<1%

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New Zealand

$16,895,586 Vol.

<1%

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Haiti

$12,567,187 Vol.

<1%

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Jordan

$16,595,717 Vol.

<1%

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Iran

$11,560,607 Vol.

<1%

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Panama

$1,565,543 Vol.

<1%

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South Africa

$19,556,474 Vol.

<1%

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Cape Verde

$10,579,933 Vol.

<1%

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Qatar

$13,476,454 Vol.

<1%

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Curaçao

$23,969,323 Vol.

<1%

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Uzbekistan

$27,625,980 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, buoyed by a commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week that showcased Lamine Yamal's flair and midfield dominance from Pedri and Gavi, extending their Euro 2024 title momentum into qualifiers where they topped their UEFA group early. France (12.8%) impressed with a clinical 3-1 defeat of Colombia, highlighting Kylian Mbappé's scoring threat, while England (12.4%) drew 1-1 with Uruguay, underscoring Jude Bellingham's influence and defensive solidity. The bunched top probabilities reflect the 48-team field's parity post-qualifiers—with March playoffs securing Bosnia, Czechia, Turkey, and Sweden—protective draw rules delaying elite clashes until semifinals, aging stars like Messi (Argentina at 9.3%) and Ronaldo (Portugal 7.0%), plus CONCACAF hosting variables like travel fatigue and weather keeping upsets viable for dark horses like Norway (2.9%).

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$451,515,660
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, buoyed by a commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week that showcased Lamine Yamal's flair and midfield dominance from Pedri and Gavi, extending their Euro 2024 title momentum into qualifiers where they topped their UEFA group early. France (12.8%) impressed with a clinical 3-1 defeat of Colombia, highlighting Kylian Mbappé's scoring threat, while England (12.4%) drew 1-1 with Uruguay, underscoring Jude Bellingham's influence and defensive solidity. The bunched top probabilities reflect the 48-team field's parity post-qualifiers—with March playoffs securing Bosnia, Czechia, Turkey, and Sweden—protective draw rules delaying elite clashes until semifinals, aging stars like Messi (Argentina at 9.3%) and Ronaldo (Portugal 7.0%), plus CONCACAF hosting variables like travel fatigue and weather keeping upsets viable for dark horses like Norway (2.9%).

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$451,515,660
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 45+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " has generated $451.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner ," browse the 45+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is "Spain" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.